How to manage project complexity and VUCA

Complex systems can be found everywhere, from the global climate to the infrastructure that delivers power to our homes. Virtually any environment where a large number of variables interact with each other to produce emergent phenomena that are difficult to predict and control is a complex system.

While that might depend on the framework used to define complex systems, they will usually be open and subject to critical transitions, nested within other systems, dynamic, emergent, with non-linear relationships, and contain feedback loops.

Complex systems are composed of many interacting parts that display emergent properties which cannot be comprehended by studying the elements in isolation. The source of complexity in project management, for instance, is structural, dynamic and socio-political in nature.

Complexity in project management can be gauged in a number of ways, based on variables like:
• Number of members and teams involved;
• Number of components and processes;
• Intricacy of the project’s design;
• Transparency in communication across the board;
• Geographical distribution of the actors;
• Role of all the actors and how well they’re defined.
However, the weight of these variables is dependent on the type of project and its context.

The Cynefin model uses 5 domains to frame a problem and give us a starting point for its resolution:
• Clear – characterized by known knowns;
• Complicated – characterized by known unknowns;
• Complex – characterized by unknown unknowns with patterns that become evident in hindsight;
• Chaotic – characterized by unknown unknowns with patterns that aren’t evident even in hindsight;
• Confusion – the situation cannot be evaluated as part of any domain until it has been broken down into separate contexts.

VPEC-T is a communication framework that aims to minimize the negative impact of conflicting viewpoints by applying a set of mental filters, and it stands for:
• Values
• Policies
• Events
• Content
• Trust
By clearly communicating every party’s position on each of these components, the VPEC-T model aims to level the playing field and promote better negotiations.

The I-Space or Information Space is a conceptual framework created by Max Boisot that analyzes the relationship between the way data is structured and codified, the level of abstraction, and the ease of diffusing it (sharing it with others). It is represented as a three-dimensional set of axes (abstract-concrete, undiffused-diffused, uncodified-codified). Using this set of axes, knowledge is then split into public, proprietary, personal and common sense.

VUCA is the acronym for a framework that aims to describe the properties of a world that’s in a constant state of flux, and it stands for:
• Volatility
• Uncertainty
• Complexity
• Ambiguity

Bob Johansen identifies a response model to the VUCA threats his book “Leaders Make the Future: Ten New Leadership Skills for an Uncertain World”:
• Vision counters volatility;
• Understanding counters uncertainty;
• Clarity counters complexity;
• Agility counters ambiguity.

Numerous studies have cited communication and collaboration as two of the main factors in producing complexity in project management. In many cases, our inability to absorb abstract data hinders communication. By transforming endless spreadsheets with numbers into easy-to-understand visuals representations, we can bridge the knowledge gap between stakeholders and technical teams. Visual tools like Gantt charts, timelines, or Kanban boards represent an excellent means of showcasing vital project information by creating an environment where knowledge can flow freely between participants.